May 7, 2021
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From Pandemic to Endemic COVID-19 Sales in CPG
As I prepare for a June COVID-19 update, here’s where my head is at regarding what will be changing in 2021 that may affect your early-stage brand (or not):
- Sampling – retailers may require pre-packaged samples only, which will increase the costs of this in-store technique for startups, but educated consumers may demand them moving ahead. The days of cupcake cup open-air sampling may be over. Yet, other forms of sampling do exist. Sampling to influencers by mail. Sampling kiosks for shelf-stable brands (FREEOSK).
- Events – the pent-up need for mass gatherings is palpable. These will return, but not likely in pre-pandemic form in 2021 or early 2022. Expect lower headcounts and attendance until they can be conducted mask-free
- CPG Sales Volumes
- IRI’s online dashboard has revealed inversions of the March 2020 spikes and dips by macro-category in physical retail sales are occurring (beauty, deli, seafood are all up…most of CPG is down except for Easter week)
- on the channel front, convenience is surging back as supermarket sector sales slump (i.e. return to where they were before as shoppers do more omni-channel brick shopping again)
- online grocery appears now to have accelerated with the pandemic being a massive behavioral turbo-charge among pre-pandemic users. 50% YoY increase over March 2020 seems hard to believe (see Brick Meets Click’s latest report) and yet most measurement outlets are reporting something similar
- Trade Shows Will Be VERY different
- Informa markets that own the New Hope events have released its COVID-19 physical event safety guidelines. Expo East/West will occur with masks required, social distancing, crowd reduction, and one-way navigation. If that sounds really unpleasant, it’s because it will be. Attendance will be low, as long as these requirements are enforced.
- Virtual events may replace the PR function of expensive booths for start-ups in CPG
- Digital Promotional Savvy Up
- I see evidence that newer startups are adopting professional B2B marketing tactics and heavily branded outreach techniques as well as digital PR to gain attention and legitimacy during a period when face-to-face pitching has been impossible. Whether it’s a VERY slick online pitch deck or a viral virtual booth performance, improvement in founders’ digital B2B outreach will be a long-term benefit. We’ve now all realized that B2B promotional work can happen 24/7, and on demand, for any intended audience. It’s not 1991 anymore.