Episode 133 – Food Innovation for GLP-1 Users?

 

January 1, 2025

 

“Nothing tastes as good as skinny feels.” Kate Moss said in a now infamous 2009 interview.[1] In a society that is mostly overweight and obese, skinny, small waisted adults are visibly rare in public life. And rare social phenomena usually become one of two things: a source of danger or a source of status boosting.

 

While obesity rates in the U.S. adult population (BMI of 30 or higher) peaked around 2017-2020 (and may be declining slowly), rates of severe obesity (BMI or 40 or higher) continue to climb steadily (currently around 10%). This latter group represents the population with almost certain chronic illness risk due to their body fat composition.

 

The stigma aimed at the severely obese has not ebbed in our society despite the majority’s significant weight gain. They therefore have the strongest psycho-social motivation to do something dramatic to escape this symbolic burden. Across the U.S. population, nearly 40% of adults have experienced fat shaming comments or other forms of stigma.  It is the skinny minority who benefit from this shaming process and from convincing others to join them.

 

The increasing rarity of skinniness presents the mildly obese and even the merely overweight with a powerful incentive to regain their prior normal BMI status – join the ‘body elite.’

 

The severely obese Americans I have interviewed over the years, though, have little desire to be ‘skinny’ because most never were and because their objectives are more practical – being able to move without pain, ending diabetes and healing their heart.

 

Pharmaceutical companies can easily monetize both motivations – health improvement and social status.

 

Historically, individual dieting efforts do not tend to last more than a few months. Weight is then fully regained as old habits re-engage. The most successful diet programs (e.g. Atkins and Jenny Craig) do not generate weight loss lasting more than a year.  A year. Part of the reason is that most dieters only want to lose 5-20 pounds temporarily. They do not have the massive objective of the severely obese.

 

So, how will the latest generation of weight-loss medications affect America’s weight management culture? And will they have a permanent effect on food consumption volumes, if they gain a permanent foothold? And what are major food players doing to hedge against any threat to volumes?

 

I expore all these questions in detail in a piece I wrote in December for the Food Institute. Just enter “GLP” or “Dr. James Richardson” on their site, and you’ll find it quickly. 

 

What I want to riff on in this episode is the idea of innovating new brands for GLP-1 users, who are very likely to be a permanent consumer segment in American life. I’m sure at least one private equity firm is hunting for a founder to launch a GLP-1 brand…Probably ten. [eye roll].

 

If you think this is a silly straw man to attack, then note that Nestle already has launched an entire new brand of GLP-1 frozen entrees called Vital Pursuit. So there, haters. Not sure how they plan to message it without triggering ‘shitty diet food awaits within.’ 

 

Here are the innovation areas I could see attracting founders:

 

  1. High satiety with dense nutrition…This is what a heavily plant-based, vegan diet basically is. Right? Seriously. Eat a mixed raw veggie bowl with brown rice and boom. Hungry Root would love to get you hooked on these. For tactical users of GLP-1 drugs committed to leaping off a GLP-1 regimen and permanently altering their diet, perhaps there could be demand…Should you build a brand around like it, though? Or is the GLP-1 consumer simply a launch niche for some new brands? Potentially. There are two primary ways to pull off this nutrition macro-fecta. The produce kit route or the processed food route.  Going the whole veggie route to satiety – as in a Hungry Root veggie bowl –  has a huge weakness.  This food just won’t appeal to your average GLP-1 user (selected by their BMI and probably a heavy consumer of processed flavor profiles) and produce always has a challenged business model. The unit economics of produce only make sense for a produce distributor, not a brand buying ingredients at a markup. Taylor Farms take note of GLP-1 users as a great salad kit marketing segment.The other approach I expect some folks to use to tap into the GLP-1 audience is either the meal replacement drink or nutrition bar platforms. Some are already noticing that new premium snack brands like DAVID offer extreme macros that would appeal to GLP-1 users. 28g of protein with no grams of sugar is unheard of in the protein bar space without a lot of interesting chemicals.  Although I think DAVID would appeal to GLP-1 users, but is it worth targeting a slice of them to launch a brand? IF you are cash limited, yes. This kind of niche marketing has worked before, for brands like Splenda. The risk is developing a ‘diet’ brand stigma early on, which, historically in America – connotes horrible tasting garbage. A risk you have to have faith your R&D has overcome.
  1. The other innovation pillar of relevance is Portion Control– OK. Yes, GLP-1 users need smaller portions of chewable food that their stomach needs to digest. This is pretty clear. And this is the Vital Pursuit approach. Familiar foods but smaller portions. This is basically a pack size approach only suited to incumbent brands as a line extension move. The problem is that everyone can jump on this idea, especially huge companies that own their own production facilities. A new brand trying this angle and marketing to GLP-1 users would easily get sidelined by higher awareness, higher trust brands.  It’s also far less easy to order up weird packaging sizes, container sizes, etc. from a co-manufacturer and grow fast. Quirky product runs could delay your access or reduce the number of runs per year you can obtain.

 

GLP-1 users represent a valid niche audience for premium food innovation, but not through portion control of processed frozen lasagna. No, it will be more innovative, hyper-convenient, nutrient dense offerings. I just can’t advise anyone to embed this audience in their brand identity. Please don’t.